California Initiative that will Split States Electoral Votes to Make the Ballot

A Republican-linked group called "California Counts" is going to gather enough petition signatures to place a proposal before California voters to change the way the state awards its electoral votes, which could and probably will ensure a Republican Presidential victory in 2008 if passed.

Donors to California Counts include Rep. Darrell Issa (R- Chula Vista), near San Diego - a very wealthy GOP Congressman, Floyd Kvamme - a Silicon Valley venture capitalist who is a supporter of Rudy Guliani and Jerold Perenchio - the former head of Univision. The spokesman for California Counts is David Gilliard, a political consultant who was intricate in the California Recall Election of 2003 in which Democrat Governor Gray Davis was ousted from power by current Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

David Gilliard predicted the group could submit as many as 700,000 petition signatures to qualify it for the ballot, far above the required 434,000 threshold, which would mean California voters will vote on it during California's June "non-Presidential" Primary.

Republican supporters say the proposal would usher in a new era of fairness in presidential contests because it would award electoral votes based on voting percentages in the states' Congressional Districts rather than the winner take all system (two other states already use this method). But Democrats say it's little more than an attempt to rig the 2008 race in favor of the GOP nominee.

California awards its cache of 55 electoral votes to the statewide winner in presidential elections - the largest single prize in the nation. Under the proposal, the statewide winner would receive only two electoral votes, with the rest allocated according to results in each congressional district.

California has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections. But the change - if approved by voters - would position a Republican candidate to win almost half of California's electoral votes. Anywhere from 20-25 Congressional Districts in California are safe Republican or Republican leaning, which would make it virtually impossible for a Democrat candidate to win the general election, even if they win Ohio or another swing state.

"It will lose at the ballot box ... it will be a loser for the Republican Party," said consultant Chris Lehane, a leading supporter of Hillary Clinton and long-time Clinton political "hitman" who is organizing opposition to this ballot measure.

If it does qualify, which it will, Democrats likely would have to spend millions of dollars to defeat it, which could drain money from other races. And there are expected to be additional ballot proposals on abortion and other social issues that could drive up California GOP turnout that day, making the passage of such a proposal even more likely.

The state already moved its presidential primary to Feb. 5 in an attempt to increase its clout in national politics. In that primary, Republicans will award delegates only to the top vote-getter in each congressional district. A Democrat can qualify for a delegate by winning at least 15 percent of the vote in a district.

Leading Democrats have united with Hollywood producer Stephen Bing and hedge fund manager Tom Steyer to defeat the proposal. A committee formed to oppose the plan, which has ties to Democratic candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton, had been running ads depicting the proposal as a power grab.

Republican support is not unanimous - and even Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has questioned the idea.

Regardless, the proposal WILL make the California ballot in June and the GOP has the advantage in such a situation because GOPers traditionally vote in greater percentages than Democrats in such elections. The real questions now are, will it pass, and how many millions of dollars are the Democrats willing to spend to defeat it (at the expense of other races).